Rossiya{0}}Ukraina mojarosining avj olishi fotovoltaiklarga ta'sir qiladimi?
1. Rossiya{1}}Ukraina mojarosining mahalliy fotovoltaiklarga ta'siri
If you only look at the development of new energy in Russia and Ukraine, as of July 2021, Ukraine's total installed photovoltaic capacity has reached 7.74GW, of which 6.4GW is installed on the ground and 933MW is installed in households. In 2021, Russia will add only 233 megawatts of photovoltaics, with a cumulative installed capacity of about 2GW.
Rossiya{0}}Ukraina mojarosi 2022-yilda har ikki davlatning oʻrnatilgan quvvatiga taʼsir qilishi kerak, ayniqsa Ukrainada, urushdan keyingi qayta qurish ishlari juda koʻp-. Biroq, Rossiya va Ukrainaning yangi o'rnatilgan quvvati jahon fotovoltaik bozorida juda kichik va global fotovoltaiklarning yangi o'rnatilgan quvvatiga juda oz ta'sir qiladi.
2. Rossiya{1}}Ukraina mojarosining PV ta'minotiga ta'siri
Rossiya va Ukrainaning o'rnatilgan quvvati dunyoga ta'sir qilmasa ham, mojaroning o'zi global fotovoltaik bozoriga ta'sirini e'tiborsiz qoldirmaslik kerak. Birinchisi, PV ta'minoti bozoridagi to'g'ridan-to'g'ri ziddiyat.
Elektron yarimo'tkazgichlar sohasida elektron maxsus gazlar (elektron maxsus gazlar) yirik{0}}o'lchovli integral mikrosxemalar, yassi{1}}panelli displeylar kabi elektron sanoatni ishlab chiqarishda ajralmas asosiy va yordamchi materiallardan biridir. qurilmalar, aralash yarimo'tkazgichli qurilmalar, quyosh batareyalari va optik tolalar. Elektron maxsus gaz quyosh xujayralarining ko'plab ishlab chiqarish bo'g'inlarida, jumladan diffuziya, etching, cho'kish va boshqa jarayonlarda muhim rol o'ynaydi.
Ukraina asosan neon, kripton va ksenon ishlab chiqaradigan yarimo'tkazgich xomashyosining asosiy yetkazib beruvchisi bo'lib, neonga global talabning 70 foizini, kriptonning 40 foizini va ksenonning 30 foizini ta'minlaydi. Qo'shma Shtatlardagi yarimo'tkazgichli neon gazning 90 foizdan ko'prog'i-Rossiya va Ukrainadan keladi. Rossiya va Ukraina oʻrtasidagi mojaro mintaqadagi inert gaz taʼminotiga taʼsir qilishi mumkin. Gaz ta'minotining qisqarishi narxlarning oshishiga olib keladi va shunga mos ravishda kremniy gofret ishlab chiqarish xarajatlari oshishi mumkin.
Biroq, elektron gazning narxi IC materiallarining umumiy qiymatining 5 foizi -6 foizini tashkil qiladi va silikon gofret va batareyalar narxiga ta'siri juda katta bo'lmasligi kerak.
3. Rossiya-Ukraina mojarosining yangi global o'rnatilgan quvvatga ta'siri
Rossiya va Ukrainaning o'rnatilgan quvvatlari dunyoga ta'sir qilmaydi, lekin Rossiya{0}}Ukraina mojarosining o'zi yangi o'rnatilgan quvvatlar bo'yicha global kutishlarga ta'sir qiladi.
After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, the most immediate crisis in Europe was the energy crisis. On the one hand, the Nord Stream 2 was suspended indefinitely. On the other hand, as the conflict escalated, Europe's energy supply faced increasing risks. Europe depends on Russia for more than a third of its natural gas supplies, and although Russian gas deliveries to the European Union via Ukraine are proceeding normally and Russia says its overseas gas supplies are "uninterrupted", European gas, coal and crude oil futures have surged.
With the escalation of sanctions in Europe and the United States, Europe has restricted Russia's use of the border Bank Swift clearing system. Any sanctions that restrict Russia's access to foreign exchange may upend commodity markets such as oil, gas, metals and crops, and the escalation of sanctions may also lead Russia to cut off natural gas. supply in retaliation.
Shu sababli, Rossiya va Ukraina o'rtasidagi ziddiyat Evropada an'anaviy energiyani yangi energiya bilan almashtirishni tezlashtirishga ijobiy ta'sir ko'rsatadi. Butun Yevropa va Qoʻshma Shtatlar 2021-yilda oʻrnatilgan quvvatlar boʻyicha dunyodagi ikkinchi yirik bozor boʻladi va uning quvvati 26 GVt dan ortiq boʻlishi kutilmoqda, bu yiliga 30 foizdan koʻproq oʻsish-{{4} }yil 2020 yilda yangi o'rnatilgan quvvat bilan solishtirganda.
Europe faces a shortage of natural gas inventories in 2021, which has stimulated the adjustment of the EU's RED II plan (increasing the proportion of renewable energy and accelerating the carbon neutrality agenda), and Germany and other countries have formulated more aggressive renewable energy plans. The sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022 will once again push European countries to attach importance to energy security and energy independence, and to meet this demand will inevitably rely on the needs of wind power, photovoltaics and nuclear power, of which photovoltaics are the focus.
O'tgan yilning oxirida biz Evropada 2022 yilda 30 GVt dan ortiq yangi fotovoltaik qurilmalarga erishishni kutgan edik. Endi Evropada fotovoltaik qo'llashni tezlashtirishi mumkin va har yili 35 yoki hatto 40 GVtga o'sishi mumkin.
In addition to the tension in Europe, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may affect shipping prices, and tight crude oil supplies may stimulate global demand for new energy. At least judging from the stock market last week, when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered violent shocks in the global stock market, China's photovoltaic sector is doing quite well, right? ? The return of the trillion-dollar photovoltaic track is obvious, and the photovoltaic 50ETF rose by 1.53 percent ...
4. Rossiya va Ukraina o'rtasidagi ziddiyat kremniy materiallarining keskinligini oshirishi mumkin
2022 yilda kremniy ortiqcha bo'ladimi? Maqolada tahlil shuni ko'rsatadiki, 2022 yilda kremniy materiallari ishlab chiqarish va modullarni etkazib berish nisbati yillik yangi o'rnatilgan 220 GVt quvvatga asoslangan holda 1,5 ni tashkil qiladi. 270 GVt quvvatga ega optimistik prognozga asoslanib, taklif{6}}talab nisbati 1,34 atrofida bo'ladi, bu o'rtacha bo'shashgan taklif-talab balansi nuqtasidir. Silikon moddasining narxi yil davomida bir oz pasayish bilan barqaror bo'lishi kutilmoqda.
However, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has accelerated the global expectation for new energy installations, photovoltaics, as the most important pillar of new energy, may exceed the previously expected upper limit of newly installed capacity, and the demand for silicon materials may increase. However, the supply of silicon materials may be affected by conflicts. For example, Germany's Wacker, the main supplier of silicon materials in Europe, may be restricted by various factors such as energy prices, energy supply, and shipping. Both production and delivery may be affected.
Shu tarzda, kremniy materiallarini etkazib berishning modul talabiga nisbati 1,3 dan pastga tushishi mumkin, hatto 1,2 ga yaqin bo'lishi mumkin, bu avvalgi tahlilda juda qattiq ta'minotni ifodalaydi, bu kremniy yetkazib berishning barcha taxminlariga katta zarba bo'ladi. material osonlashadi va silikon materialning narxi tushadi.
Rossiya va Ukraina o'rtasidagi ziddiyat 2022 yilda fotovoltaik o'rnatishni yanada optimistik qildi, ammo bu silikon materiallarning narx tendentsiyasini yanada chalkashtirib yubordi.